Publications in Refereed Journals and Edited Volumes
Do Short-term Observed Income Changes Overstate Structural Economic Mobility? With Christopher B. Barrett. Forthcoming in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Abstract: The recent empirical literature on household income dynamics in developing countries has tended to find considerable intertemporal economic mobility and thus to infer that a large proportion of poverty is transitory. This paper introduces a statistical test to determine whether these findings are partially driven by stochastic changes in transitory income. Using household panel data and Monte Carlo simulations we demonstrate that this is indeed the case. Estimates of total economic mobility are inversely correlated with the panel spell length. For short data spells, estimated total economic mobility is significantly greater than the underlying structural economic mobility that is the target of most poverty reduction policies.
Naschold, Felix (2009) Microeconomic Determinants of Income Inequality in Rural Pakistan. Journal of Development Studies Vol. 45, No. 5, p.746-768.
Abstract:Inequality matters for poverty reduction. However, it is often unclear what policy could do to change the distribution of income as to date there is little quantitative evidence about the household characteristics that determine the level of income inequality and its changes over time. This paper sets out to identify these determinants by adapting a regression-based inequality decomposition technique and applying it to panel data from rural Pakistan. Land ownership is key to explaining the level of inequality, but not its changes. In contrast, higher education drives changes, but not the level of inequality. Household location affects both, reflecting growing differences in market access across regions.
Naschold, Felix (2004) "Growth, Distribution and Poverty Reduction: LDCs are Falling Further Behind', in: Tony Shorrocks and Rolph van der Hoeven (eds) Growth, Inequality, and Poverty - Prospects for Pro-poor Economic Development, WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Foster, Mick, Adrienne Brown, and Felix Naschold (2001) "Sector Programme Approaches: Will They Work in Agriculture?" Development Policy Review, Vol.19, No.3, September, p. 321-338.
Hanmer, Lucia and Felix Naschold (2000) "Attaining the International Development Targets: Will Growth Be Enough?" Development Policy Review, Vol.18, No.1, March 2000, p. 11-36.
Also published in: Anne Booth and Paul Mosley (eds.) (2003) The New Poverty Strategies: What Have They Achieved? What Have We Learned?, London: Macmillan.
Other Selected Publications
Barrett, Christopher, Ernest Aryeetey, Agnes Quisumbing, Akhter Ahmed, John Hoddinott, Felix Naschold, Jacqueline Vanderpuye-Orgle and Tassew Woldehanna (2007) "Local Risk Management: Protecting Household Asset Building and Farm Productivity from Idiosynchratic Shocks", USAID BASIS CRSP Brief 2007-03, July.
Commissioned Reports and Other Papers
As Research Officer, Overseas Development Institute, London(1999-2002)Numerous consultancy reports for international donor organizations (DFID, UNCTAD, UNDP, World Bank, OECF Japan) on poverty monitoring, Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers, new development aid modalities and public expenditure management.
As Senior Economist, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Suva, Fiji (1995-1997)
Lead Drafter for Minister of Finance's Annual Budget Speeches 1997 and 1998.
Investment Policy Review Fiji (with Foreign Investment Advisory Service - World Bank).